Dear AfroSpear Kinfolk:
Barack Obama has made a tremendous victory for hope and aspirations over expediency and cynicism tonight, with his 7% margin victory over Edwards and Clinton in Iowa. He won by only 1% among Democrats but picked up enough independents to increase his margin considerably, with turnout increased in Iowa by an estimated 85%.
This is a very convincing victory. Black people and white all over America will be reevaluating their positions this morning, asking themselves whether daring to engage in the "audacity of hope" is really more practical and feasible than was ever believed before.
So, congratulations to those who have rallied around Barack Obama and to those who have supported the concept of social change embodied in a change of leadership demographics.
"Hope is that thing inside of us that insists, in spite of all evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us if we have the courage to work for it and fight forFrancis
it . . . " - - - Barack Obama 1/4/2008
4 comments:
francis,
when are you going to take down that pic of the presidential seal with hillary clinton?!? after tonight, you must admit that she... oh, never mind! *smile*
@plez - I don't think that Clinton is finished. However, I'd rate her odds of winning the nomination as under 50% for the first time during this campaign, and Obama's chances as higher than hers.
I think that the great achievement that the Obama campaign did, honestly, was to get massive turnout, particuarly of young voters. If they can keep this up, not only the primary, but the general election will be cakewalks for him.
In any event, I found this entrance poll very interesting (due to the structure of the Iowa caucuses, you shouldn't expect the initial numbers (which these reflect) to represent the final numbers exactly).
Summary:
Clinton won the "Pakistan is important" vote.
Clinton won Western Iowa.
Clinton tied with Obama on the 15,000-30,000 income level
Clinton won the married vote.
Clinton won the Experienced vote.
Clinton won the Rural vote (this may be why she won more national delegates than Edwards with a smaller percentage of voters).
Clinton and Edwards tied for the decided last week vote.
Clinton and Obama tied for the Union vote.
Clinton won the married woman vote.
Clinton won the 65+ vote.
Edwards won the "Pakistan? What's Pakistan?" vote.
Edwards won the Conservative vote.
Edwards won the vote of those who had caucused before.
Edwards won the "Cares about people" and "Electability" votes.
Edwards and Clinton tied for the decided last week vote.
Edwards won the 45-64 vote.
Obama won the female vote and the male vote.
Obama won those with moderate to mild concern about Pakistan.
Obama won Central and Eastern Iowa.
Obama won all party IDs.
Obama won all income levels, save 15,000-30,000, where he tied with Clinton.
Obama won for those whose top issue was the Economy, the War in Iraq, and Health Care (!)
Obama won the unmarried vote.
Obama won the Moderate and Liberal vote.
Obama won the vote of those who had never caucused before.
Obama got a majority of the Change vote.
Obama won the Urban and suburban votes.
Obama won the vote of people who decided sometime other than last week when to vote.
Obama tied with Clinton for the Union vote, and won the non-union vote.
Obama won the vote of those who aren't married females.
Obama won the 44 and under vote.
Obama got a majority of the 29-17 vote.
Plez, after Iowa I think we should all consider the possibility that while Clinton and Obama have very similar programs, Obama may simply be a much better messenger for the Democrats. Everybody acknowledges that he is a far better speaker than Clinton (and Edwards) and Obama's message of hope and change may the best counter-point to the Republican message of endless war and fear.
Democrats, Republicans and Independents are going to vote for the person whom the like the best, and in Barack Obama we have a man with an ebullient personality; he's charming, positive, handsome, uncommonly intelligent, confident and yet humble.
In fact, the only reason NOT to nominate Obama is that he is Black and we are afraid a Black man can't win.
Well, we Blacks have to take responsibility for what we do and let whites take responsibility for what they do.
I'm thinking out loud, Plez, without making any commitments. I'm not ready to remove my ad for Hillary because I still respect what she's trying to do. But, I believe that perhaps Barack Obama has proven that he has the positive and hopeful message of change that the Democrats need in 2008, and I think Iowans have told America that they are unwilling to reject that message just because the messenger is Black.
Probably the best thing that can happen in the presidential campaign is to do photo-shoots with some American soldiers. They are the unspoken hero in all this, and one of the reason some people are putting their hope in Obama. They believe he will bring the troops home a lot quicker than Clinton. In any case, the boys and girls in Iraq are tired of fighting. It's time to talk to all parties about brokering peace.
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